Democrat Ahead in Alabama District Dominated by GOP Since 1965

A Democrat is leading polling in an Alabama congressional district dominated by Republicans for 60 years until the Supreme Court ordered it be redrawn in 2023.
Alabama’s 2nd congressional district, before being redrawn, was represented by a Republican in every congressional term since 1965, except for a two-year period from 2009-2011 when it was held by Democrat Bobby Bright.
Democrat Shomari Figures is facing Republican Caroleene Dobson in the newly drawn district, which encompasses the state capital Montgomery, and has a majority of Black voters (47.6 percent, compared to 45 percent white).
The redistricting results from a 5-4 Supreme Court ruling in June 2023 in the case of Allen v. Milligan, where the court ruled that Alabama’s districts likely discriminated against Black voters and ordered the map be redrawn to contain another Black-majority district.
Before this ruling, Alabama’s congressional map was drawn in a way that concentrated Black voters into just one of the state’s seven districts, despite Black residents making up 27 percent of the state’s population.
This shift has set the stage for a highly competitive race in a district where Joe Biden would have beaten Donald Trump by 12 points in 2020 (had it been redrawn at the time), suggesting Alabama’s strong Republican lean is driven largely by white voters.
A new poll conducted by Schoen Cooperman Research for Democratic Super PAC Protect Progress, released last week, found that Figures, the Democratic candidate, was ahead of Republican Dobson by 11 points, with 49 percent of voters supporting him compared to 38 percent for Dobson.
This follows a trend seen in earlier polling; an Impact Research poll in August had Figures leading 51 percent to 39 percent, while a Republican-commissioned survey from July showed a much tighter margin, with Figures still leading at 37 percent and Dobson at 34 percent.
According to the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the race is now considered “likely Democratic.”
Figures, a former deputy chief of staff for Attorney General Merrick Garland, has focused his campaign on healthcare access, economic reforms, and gun safety.
During the candidates’ debate earlier in October, he pointed to Alabama’s refusal to expand Medicaid as a major cause of rural hospital closures across the state. During a recent debate, Figures said better preventative healthcare services were needed in the district.
“We need to provide that level of preventative screening,” Figures said, criticizing Republicans for blocking Medicaid expansion. “If they truly care about life, they have to get serious about health care.”
Dobson, a real estate attorney, has countered by focusing on inflation and government spending.
She has criticized the Biden administration’s economic policies, arguing that reckless spending has led to rising costs for Alabama families.
During the same debate, Dobson called inflation “devastating” and promised to push for lower taxes and greater energy independence through domestic production.
“Inflation is killing us, and we are never going to truly curb it until we stop the reckless government spending,” Dobson said.
Both candidates are political newcomers but have backing from their respective parties. Dobson has been included in the National Republican Congressional Committee’s “Young Guns” program, which provides support to promising GOP candidates.
Figures, meanwhile, spoke at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and was added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program, designed to flip Republican seats.
The debate also brought to the fore personal tensions. Dobson called Figures a “Washington insider,” pointing to his time in the Obama and Biden administrations, while Figures criticized Dobson as being out of touch with the everyday struggles of Alabama voters.
Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Dobson and Figures via email and online form for comment.